It is often ignored outside Taiwan, however, that President Tsai’s refraining from recognizing the 1992 Consensus is not synonymous with a blunt rejection of it, as President Chen Shui-bian did. This served as a foundation for relative stability, diplomatic truce, and expanded economic exchanges across the Taiwan Strait during 2008-2016. Ma embraced the “1992 Consensus,” an understanding reached by Chinese and Taiwan representatives in 1992 that there was one China with different interpretations as to what constituted the one China. China has been triggered by President Tsai Ing-wen’s unwillingness to adhere to the cross-Strait formula that her predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, maintained. Such actions have sharply raised the likelihood of unexpected military clashes due to miscalculation or limited time and space for adaptation and self-restraint.Įven before Pelosi’s visit, though, cross-Strait tensions had been steadily escalating as a result of Beijing’s heightened aggressiveness along economic, diplomatic, and military fronts since 2016. Beijing seems determined to try to routinize PLA power projection across the median line of the Taiwan Strait and into waters even closer to Taiwan than those already intruded by PLA before the visit. In response, the People’s Liberation Army launched live munition military drills starting August 4. This convergence of forces was visible in the wake of Speaker Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. There now is a particularly acute menace in the short term of fierce conflict in the Taiwan Strait fueled by domestic factors. These changes have been largely due to domestic changes in China, Taiwan, and the United States, and changes in the regional as well global orders. Relations between Taiwan and China have undergone crucial transformations since 2016.
Visiting Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies How do you think about the sustainability of the status quo? What factors do you weigh most heavily in informing your judgment? There has been growing pessimism in Washington and elsewhere about the sustainability of cross-Strait peace and stability. Ryan Hass ( Fellow, Center for East Asia Policy Studies and John L. Visiting Fellow - Foreign Policy, Center for East Asia Policy Studies
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